|
Environnement
hostile Hostile
environment
Rubrique
Sous-rubrique
Chapitre
|
Country
risk refers to the economic and political
events occurring at the sovereign or sub-sovereign
level in a country that threaten firm profitability
(and even survival) and are the result of forces
external to the firm and its industry . Sovereign
economic risk events include currency crises,
inflation, deflation, unemployment and fiscal
deficits. Examples of sovereign political risk
events are political coups, grand corruption,
expropriation or nationalization of property, war
damage, and inconvertibility of financial assets
imposed by the host country government. In
contrast, sub-sovereign risk events may have no
relation to the macro-policies or practices of the
central government in the host country. Instead,
these risks only affect certain firms, industries
or regions in a country. Sub-sovereign risks may
include the actions of corrupt local government
officials, frustration of contracts, and
difficulties or holdups in obtaining permits or
licenses at the local or regional level. The effect
of such risks may be idiosyncratic affecting only
certain firm or industries or it may be felt across
a wide range of firms. Risks that fall outside the
scope of this study include normal business or
commercial risks, such as the risk of change in
economic costs or demand, changes in the extent of
competition in the marketplace, or risks associated
with new product or service
introduction. Clearly
there is considerable overlap between these
economic, financial and political risks. It is
often difficult, if not impossible, to determine
whether a currency crisis led to a political coup
or vice versa. Although the direction of causality
between the different types of risks is often
uncertain, for managers the impact of a currency
crisis (economic risk) or request for a bribe
(political risk) is quite clear. For this reason,
the term country risk will be used throughout the
paper to refer to the totality of risk events.
Country risk will be categorized by level of
analysis (sovereign and sub-sovereign) and type of
risk (political and economic). Jennifer
Oetzel 2005
Par pays - By Countries - Por paises Monde - World - Mundo
Failed States Index Scores 2009 2008 Failed States Index : Whether it is an unexpected food crisis or a devastating hurricane, the world’s weakest states are the most exposed when crisis strikes. In the fourth annual Failed States Index, Foreign Policy and The Fund for Peace rank the countries where state collapse may be just one disaster away. The Failed States Index 2007 By The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine
Oswaldo de Rivero : États en ruine, conflits sans fin : Les entités chaotiques ingouvernables (Le monde diplomatique, avril 1999) John C. Ries : Definition of the Country Risk Sophie Gherardi : Les éclaireurs du risque international (Le Monde, 13 janvier 1998) Helmut Reisen , (OCDE) : Il faut transformer les notations des pays en signaux d'alerte précoces (Le Monde, 24 février 1998) Ibrahim Warde : Ces puissantes officines qui notent les États (Le Monde Diplomatique, février 1997) Nadeem Ul Haque, Donald Mathieson, and Nelson Mark : Rating the Raters of Country Creditworthiness (Finance and development, march 1997) Export Finance and Insurance Corporation : EFIC's Country Risk Rating System Mondaq Business Briefing : Risk Management: Country Profiles
Afrique - Africa - Africa Leopardus Resources Ltd : About Mozambique Sénégal Sombel Faye : Risque-Pays : Le Sénégal piétine, 27 janvier 2010, SudOnline [Portail du Journal Sud Quotidien] (Des incertitudes au plan économique et financier et un environnement des affaires difficile, avec une probabilité moyenne de défaut des entreprises assez élevée. C’est l’appréciation du risque que la Coface(Compagnie française d’assurance pour le commerce extérieur), dans son dernier rapport 2010, fait sur le Sénégal.)
Amérique centrale et du sud - Central and South America- America central y del sur Costa-Rica |
